Breast and Prostate Cancer: Estimation of Death Rate using One Dimensional Bilinear Time Series Model

¹J. F. Ojo and ²K. P. Akinpelu

¹Department of Statistics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria

²APIN PEPFAR, UCH, Data Unit, College of Medicine, UI, Ibadan.

E-mail: jfunminiyiojo@yahoo.co.uk  

ABSTRACT

The study is on using one dimensional bilinear time series model to estimate the death rate in breast and prostate cancer reported in a given period with a view to know the number of death. Purposive sample of 2687 and 80 reported cases in breast and prostate cancer from the Oyo State Hospitals Management Board and University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria, respectively were used for the estimation. The estimation technique was based on Newton-Raphson iterative method and the best fitted one dimensional bilinear time series model was used to estimate the death rate. The study reveals (1) Death rate of 16.5% in breast cancer (2) Death rate of 12.4% in prostate cancer. These represent 442 and 10 deaths in breast and prostate cancer respectively.