ON TIME SERIES MODELS AND PREDICTION OF DEPOSITS AND LOANS OF RURAL BRANCHES OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN NIGERIA

Ojo, J.F.

Department of Statistics

University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.

E-mail: jfunminiyiojo@yahoo.co.uk  

Abstract: This study develops best time series model for the prediction of deposits and loans of rural branches of commercial banks in Nigeria. The time series models proposed for predicting deposits and loans were autoregressive bilinear and autoregressive integrated bilinear models. The parameters of the proposed models were estimated using Newton-Raphson iterative method. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) were used to determine the order of the models. To determine the best model, the residual variance was used. Estimation of parameters witnessed a unique, consistent and convergent estimator and the best derived model was used to predict the future deposits and loans.