ANALYSIS OF IMPORT AND EXPORT ELASTICITY OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN NIGERIA: 1975 – 2009
Igberi, C. O., Nwibo, S. U., and Odo, N. E.
Department of Agricultural Economics, Management and Extension
Ebonyi State University, Abakaliki
E-mail: sunwibo92@yahoo.com
ABSTRACT
The study sought to analyse the import and export elasticity of agricultural products in Nigeria between 1975 and 2009. Data for analysis were collected conveniently using secondary sources. Data collected were analysed using inferential statistics (multiple regression). The result of the import analysis showed that coefficient of multiple determination, R2 was very strong at 0.750 and statistically significant at 1% (P = 0.01) which indicates a very strong explanatory power of the independent variables in explaining the change in the dependent variable, which was import demand of agricultural products. It explicitly showed that four (4) out of the five (5) coefficients of: gross domestic product (GDP), coefficient of index of commercial openness (ICO), External Reserve (LnEXTR) and Liberalization dummy were positively signed, as well as statistically significant at 1% except liberalization dummy (TLD) that was statistically insignificant. Again, the result of the export analysis showed that the coefficient of multiple determination, R2 was 0.525 or 52.50% and statistically significant at 1%. The DW value was 2.947 and indicated the absence of auto-correlation. It was further observed that the following variables: gross domestic product (GDP), commercial openness, output of major agricultural export commodities and index of world prices were positively signed and statistically significant at 1%. The study therefore conclude that agricultural export elasticity was most responsive to output and world price, and least responsive to trade liberalization; though not statistically significant. Based on the research findings, the following recommendations were made: stimulation of domestic agricultural production for increase exports; expansion programmes and policies should be made proactive on agricultural export. Agricultural products that are most competitive in terms of quality and price need to be encouraged.
Key words: import, export, elasticity, agricultural product, trade liberalization.