MODELLING OF MONTHLY NIGERIAN EXPORT COMMODITY PRICE INDICES BY SEASONAL BOX-JENKINS METHODS


Ette Harrison Etuk

Department of Mathematics/Computer Science

Rivers State University of Science and Technology, Port Harcourt, Nigeria

Email: ettetuk@yahoo.com                 

ABSTRACT

The time plot of a realisation ECPI of the series in Figure 1 reveals a slightly upward secular trend with no clear seasonal component. Seasonal (i.e. 12-monthly) differencing yields the series SDECPI which has a fairly horizontal trend and still no clear seasonality (see Figure 2). Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test adjudges both series ECPI and SDECPI as non-stationary. Non-seasonal differencing of SDECPI yields the series DSDECPI. Its time plot of Figure 3 reveals an overall horizontal trend and no clear regular seasonality. The ADF test shows that DSDECPI is seasonal. Its autocorrelation function in Figure 4 exhibits a significant negative spike at lag 12, an indication of 12-monthly seasonality and the presence of a seasonal moving average component of order one. Applying Surhatono’s (2011) modelling steps, the initial (0, 1, 1)x(0, 1, 1)12 SARIMA fit is found to be adequate. 


THE FITTING OF ARIMA MODEL IN FORECASTING NIGERIA

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)

1Amadi, Innocent Uchenna and 2Aboko, Simon Igboye

1Department of Mathematics/Computer Science, Rivers State University of Science and Technology, Oroworukwo, Nigeria

2Department of Mathematics/Statistics, Rivers State College of Arts and Science Rumuola, Nigeria.

E-mail: amadiuchennainno@gmail.com, abokoigboye@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

This research focused on Arima modeling technique to the forecasting of Nigerian Gross Domestic Product between the period of 1980 – 2011. For statistical analysis we have used graphical methods to display data distributions, Autocorrelation Function (ACF), Partial Autocorrelation Functions (PACF), Residuals and forecast, and differencing to check for stationarity. The ARIMA (2,1,2) model was proposed for the data from the first differences which shows stability and invertibility. Forecasting were made for future observations up to fifteen (15) years which shows an increasing trend over time, and the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and the adjusted multiple correlation coefficient (adjusted R-square) provide a good summary of the total variability explained by the chosen fitted model.


THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AND INNOVATION IN ADDRESSING PROBLEMS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE TO ENHANCING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN GLOBALIZING AFRICA

Okoro Njoku O., Agbo Godwin .A. and Ekpe John. E.

Department of Industrial Physics,

Ebonyi State University, Abakaliki, Nigeria.

E-mail: bathonjoku@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

Climate change poses daunting challenges to the future of humanities. Technology transfer and innovation are the effective and comprehensive approach for dealing with climate change issues. International cooperation on greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation of climate change all involve in transfers of mitigated technologies or dissemination of knowledge on climate change. Technology transfer and innovation are inseparable component of any policy response of GHG mitigation and adaptation to climate change. In this paper, we delineate the scope of technology transfer and innovation as a routine way of combating this global challenge (climate change); concisely survey the literature regarding climatic change impact, technology transfer and innovation issues and ways of mitigating them to enhancing climatic friendly environment that can boost economic development in globalizing Africa. Thus, this paper concluded that for the pursuit of, technology transfer and innovation (TTAI) to contribute to global climatic change mitigation goals and address Africa’s economic development needs, it is necessary to broaden the framing of and financial mechanisms for (TTAI) projects to include the complex and systemic relationships amongst the governmental, educational, social, political, economic and cultural dimensions of technical capabilities and knowledge circulation within and between countries. This will enhance socio-technological and innovative transitions towards mitigating climatic change impact to enhancing economic development pathways in Africa.


EFFICIENT USE OF LOCAL VEGETABLE EXTRACTS AS VERITABLE ALTERNATIVE CORROSION INHIBITORS (A Case Study of Ocimum basilicum and Amaranthus cordatus) 

Michael Nwankwo O., Ndubuisi E. Idenyi and Oshionwu Lucky C.

Department of Industrial Physics

Ebonyi State University, Abakaliki, Nigeria.

E-mail: michaelnwankwo@yahoo.com, edennaidenyi@yahoo.com, luckisma@yahoo.ie

ABSTRACT

A study of the efficient use of local vegetable extracts as veritable alternative corrosion inhibitors in controlling the corrosion of conventional engineering mild steel has been undertaken. The work studies the use of Ocimum basilicum and Amaranthus cordatus as corrosion inhibitors for conventional mild steel in 0.5M, 1.0M of both H2SO4 and NaCl. Weight-loss corrosion technique was employed in obtaining the corrosion penetration rate using the equation: Cpr =  . The experiment was carried out for 30 days and the result showed that corrosion of the mild steel was found to increase with increase in concentration of the base or acid and also decreased with increase in the volume of the extracts of these local vegetables. Expectedly, the inhibition efficiency was found to be greater in Sodium Chloride than in tetraoxosulphate (VI) acid because the acid contain more corrosion enhanced species. It was concluded then that Amaranthus cordatus and Ocimum basilicum can be used as good alternatives to replace most of the costly synthetic corrosion inhibitors currently being used. The finding ultimately will boost the economic development of Nigeria.


MODELLING AND FORECASTING OF NIGERIAN CRUDE OIL PRICES

USING BOXJENKINS TECHNIQUE

Yakubu .M. Yeldu1, Shehu .L.2 and 3Mukhtar .G.

1, 2,3Department of Statistics, College of Science and Technology

Waziri Umaru Federal Polytechnic, Birnin Kebbi, Kebbi State, Nigeria.

E-mail: yeldouyakubu@gmail.com, yeldouykb@yahoo.com

Abstract

Box – Jenkins modelling approach has been applied for the time series analysis of Weekly (Forcados, Nigeria) Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) from August 07, 2000 to September 02, 2013. Basic statistical properties of these series were investigated. After taking the first order difference the time series seems to be stationarity. Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots were used to make tentative identification of the form and order of Box – Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. Initially several non – seasonal ARIMA models were postulated for further analysis. These models were then estimated for their adequacy based on the significance of the parameter estimates, mean square and Box – Pierce (Ljung – Box) statistics. Based on these criterion ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model fitted adequately and was also used for short term forecasting. The estimated model is: .


Table of Contents

Achieving National Transformation Agenda in Nigeria through Entrepreneurship

(A Review)

Usman B.U., Ibrahim A.M. and Salihu S.                                                                                  1 – 11

Marketing Management Trends in Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Facing the 21st Century Environment

Ibrahim Samson                                                                                                                      12 – 27

Managing the Challenges of Stress in Small and Medium Enterprises in Niger State

for Improved Productivity

Adeoti M.O., Gata E.G. and Ozimede E.I.                                                                                 28 – 39

Procedural and Distributive Justice: The Judges, The Litigants, The Processes Versus Productivity and Quality of Work Life in the Organization

Wurim, Ben Pam                                                                                                                     40 – 52

The Emergence of Total Quality Management in the Marketing of Services in Nigeria

Anetoh, J.C., Ndubisi, E.C. and Nwankwo, C.A.                                                                                    53 – 66

Empirical Test on the Journey to Goal One of the Millennium Development Goals (Eradication of Extreme Poverty and Hunger): A Case Study of Bida South Constituency in Niger State

Mohammed, T.H., Mustapha, N.M. and Gata E.G.                                                                    67 – 76

Appraisal of Public Policy on Entrepreneurship Development and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Ayodele O.C., Ozimede, Elizabeth .I. and Salihu, M.A.                                                             77 – 87


Appraisal of Public Policy on Entrepreneurship Development and Economic Growth in Nigeria

AYODELE O.C., OZIMEDE, ELIZABETH .I. AND SALIHU, M.A.

Department of Business Administration and Management

Federal Polytechnic, Bida, Niger State, Nigeria.

E-mail: churchill20002000@yahoo.com

ABSTRACT

Entrepreneurial activity and new firm formation are vehicles of economic growth and innovation especially at periods of serious economic challenges. Generally, it is also believed that private sector participation in economic development can be increased through the use of public policy. This study appraised the impact of public policies on the development of entrepreneurship in Nigeria. It also examined the relationship between entrepreneurship and economic growth and development. This paper establishes that public policy in Nigeria has negative impact on entrepreneurship development and economic growth. It was discovered that team enterprises had more resources, more competence, more experience and better planning than the sole enterprises. Also established, is the fact that teams performed better than soles on performance and growth indicators such as employment, turnover, and profitability. It concludes that, team enterprises contribute more to employment generation, income earning and economic empowerment as well as overall economic growth than sole enterprises. It is therefore recommended that entrepreneurship development and entrepreneurial orientation should be more vigorously pursued by government in order to accelerate economic growth and development in Nigeria.


The Emergence of Total Quality Management in the Marketing of Services in Nigeria

1ANETOH, J.C., 2NDUBISI, E.C. AND 3NWANKWO, C.A.

1,2&3Department of Marketing

Anambra State University, Igbariam Campus, Anambra State, Nigeria

E-mail: anetohjohn@yahoo.com, ndubisiemmachidozie@yahoo.com, caokoro@yahoo.ie

ABSTRACT

This study examined the emergence of Total Quality Management (TQM) in the Marketing of Services in Nigeria. The background of the study centered on the need for the adoption of TQM in the marketing of services in Nigeria. The Statement of the Problem focused on the challenges militating against the practice of TQM in the marketing of services in Nigeria. The major objectives of this study centered on the extent of awareness, adoption as well as the challenges facing the marketing of service in Nigeria. Nigeria has an estimated population of over 140million (2006 Census). Five service sectors in Nigeria were used and the sample size was 240. Both primary and secondary data sources were utilized and descriptive research design was adopted as questionnaire and direct personal observations were used to generate data for analysis. Chi-square (X2) statistical tool was used to test for hypotheses at 5% significant level. The results revealed the following; H01 was accepted since the computed X2 value of 3.80 < critical value of 15.51, H02 and H03 were rejected because the computed X2 value of 190.80 and 19.86 > the critical value X2 value of 26.30 and 15.51 respectively. The findings revealed that no significant TQM awareness has been created and that service providers still face many challenges in the marketing of services in Nigeria. It was concluded that the emergence of TQM will allow for more effective and efficient marketing of services in Nigeria: Recommendations were focused on the need for all stakeholders in the service sector to formulate TQM strategies as a key towards the restoration of customer’s confidence, trust, loyalty satisfaction amongst others.


Empirical Test on the Journey to Goal One of the Millennium Development Goals (Eradication of Extreme Poverty and Hunger): A Case Study of Bida South Constituency in Niger State


MOHAMMED, T.H., MUSTAPHA, N.M. AND GATA E.G.

Department of Business Administration and Management

Federal Polytechnic, Bida, Niger State, Nigeria

E-mail:gataelizabeth1972@gmail.com, harunatm1973@gmail.com, mustaphamustapha1976@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

Poverty information, based on poverty data collected from the seven wards of Bida South Constituency in Bida Local Government Area of Niger State helps locate an area with the greatest need and where assistance can make the most difference in achieving Goal One of the Millennium Development Goals (eradicate extreme poverty and hunger). Population size of three hundred and fifty (350) houses was taken from the seven (7) wards of Bida South. Systematic random sample of fifteen (15) houses each from the seven wards was taken, and fifteen (15) questionnaires were administered in each ward on the bases of one at the interval of three (3) houses. Arithmetic mean and ranking was used to measure the extent of extreme poverty and hunger in the study area. Results as attested to by a mean score of 5.2 which is the least and ranking of 7th position highest number shows that in Nassarafu ward, the majority of the households are poor and it is unlikely that individuals or households can reduce their poverty if left alone in the journey to 2015. It was recommended among other things that The existing Community Skills Development Centre should be decentralized to each ward, with a new name to be known as Ward Skills Development Centre and each ward will be having its own structures to house the various types of training programmes that may be taking place.  


Procedural and Distributive Justice: The Judges, The Litigants, The Processes Versus Productivity and Quality of Work Life in the Organization

WURIM, BEN PAM

Department of Business Studies

Plateau State University, Bokkos, Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria

E-mail: wurimpam@yahoo.com                  

ABSTRACT

Procedural Justice (PJ) and Distributive Justice (DJ) are components of the criminal system that concern the steps taken to reach the determination of guilt, punishment and the distribution of outcomes, rewards or other conclusion of law. The main thrust of this paper is to review extant research and theories on procedural and distributive justice and to consider their impact on HR productivity and organizational effectiveness. Existing conceptual contributions and real life researches show that both PJ and DJ can be reasons for organizational behavior. Both components of organizational justice were found to affect employee Productive Work Behavior (PWBs) like performance, trust, job satisfaction and organizational commitment and Organizational Citizenship Behavior (OCBs) which increased HR productivity and organizational effectiveness. Counterproductive Work Behavior (CWBs) like absenteeism and withdrawal, emotional exhaustion, job stress and burnout, fear, distrust, job dissatisfaction which ultimately lowered performance, employee productivity and organizational effectiveness. The paper concludes that organizational justice components (PJ & DJ) are key antecedents to promoting HR Productivity and organizational effectiveness. As a result, the paper recommends the establishment of a fair and popular grievance process for handling employee grievances and the encouragement of organizational managers and supervisors to support workplace fairness.


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